The world commodities market, especially for crude oil, is volatile at historically high levels at the time of writing this blogpost, with crude oil averaging USD 103.9/barrel following speculative inflationary pressures on price due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026. Jet fuel prices rose to USD 124.7/barrel in Q1 2026, which represents a 36% YoY increase. Despite these skyrocketing prices, global air cargo freight demand remains robust. This is despite the fact that this means of transport is notoriously cost ineffective at first glance, estimated to cost 4-5 times more than road transport, and 12-16 times that of maritime freight.
Air cargo is usually characterized by high value goods, usually exceeding USD 4/kg while freight rates themselves are USD 1.5-4.5/kg. These are perishable, time sensitive goods such as medicines, consumer goods, food, inputs which need to meet deadlines for manufactured products or even documents, apart from emergency shipments. Despite the niche, necessary nature of the cargo leading to lower elasticity of demand, standard economic theory would predict demand to fall at a certain, albeit low rate. Yet according to the IATA, the volume of international cargo actually increased 3.7% YoY, despite these upward pressures in price. Are firms making a terribly irrational decision, or are we sinking into fallacies? An important consideration to keep in mind is the distinction between the actual accounting cost of air freight, reflected by the price increase we see, and the economic opportunity cost of transporting these goods by other means, which has also increased, arguably disproportionately.
The proverb “time is money” is most prominent in this case. The incredible amount of time saved by transporting a modest amount of time sensitive, perishable cargo through a metal tube nearing the speed of time is quantitatively more than the per unit cost saved by transporting mammoth amounts of those goods bound by a deadline through a mega ship taking several delays and complex port logistics and risking delays. This is what the true price of time demonstrates: avoiding an unavoidable time tariff no amount of corporate lobbying can successfully avoid. For firms, air cargo provides a means of hedging against overreliance on maritime, which too has been recently marred by a series of global conflicts causing bottlenecks in the supply chain, such as the Houthi strikes and increased danger of transporting through the red sea, the strait of Hormuz blockade, and the Suez Canal blocking, with incredibly high insurance premiums for maritime transport following. Planes need not worry about more than blocked airspaces in which rerouting is far simpler. Customs, clearing and other administrative processes are faster with air freight, further reducing the aforementioned true price of time further.
Air transport may also serve to provide a good logistic fit; say a manager in Zara finds out new kinds of fashion which trend and have high demand, but that in itself is very temporary, and any delays in introducing or replenishing that line of fashion would entirely render a very valuable line almost fully worthless. The premium charged by air freight is merely worth it.
Moreover, as fuel consumption is mostly proportional to the aircraft weight and distance flown, the variable or marginal cost is thus based on weight and destination. Thus, for shorter distances air freight rates per unit distance are higher, as larger proportions of the trip are spent on ground (internodal transport through roads). Marginal cost thus diminishes as the value of goods and distance increases.
Macroeconomic studies, particularly one focusing on US imports provide a good case for fast, expensive air transport. They find that long transit delays lower the probability that a country will successfully export goods. One can thus think of the air freight premium as an investment for customer retention. Moreover, it is estimated that each day in transit is worth between 0.6%-2.2% of the goods’ value. Thus, each day of transit delay leads to a true price time based tax 0.6%-2.2% of the goods’ value. This represents depreciated, dead capital which has already been paid for in costs of production yet cannot generate 100% of the estimated revenue. Depending on the delay caused by maritime transport over air freight, depreciation cost often exceed costs saved by choosing a cheaper, more uncertain mode of transport. This is when opportunity cost of choosing road or maritime transport exceeds the accounting cost of air freight.
Macroeconomic studies on transport logistics, specifically Hummels and Schaur isolate air transport costs to model trade with distant trade partners. Here the total trade with neighbouring partners is separated between air and maritime transport.
For making a quantitatively sound conclusion, we infer that:
total cost of shipping via any mode = direct freight cost + time depreciation cost + Inventory holding cost
To make the decision to choose air over maritime transport, we need:
TTC(maritime) > TTC(air)
(TTC- Total Transport Cost)
We know, that from the total cost of shipping, the first component is much higher in air, while the second and third components are higher in maritime. This implies:
direct freight cost + time depreciation cost + Inventory holding cost(maritime) > direct freight cost + time depreciation cost + Inventory holding cost(air)
Expanding this inequality, we see that air transport become more feasible when the loss in keeping a unit of the specific good in transit is higher than the extra freight cost per day saved by choosing a cheaper alternative, say maritime.
Hummel and Schaur find that:
Extra freight cost per day saved = (c(air)-c(maritime))/(t(maritime) – t (air))
Where:
c=cost
t=days
As distance increases, numerator increases but denominator decreases at a greater rate. Increasing cost per day saved by choosing air transport.
So long as maritime transport remains more volatile than air transport, and trade takes place between partners located far enough apart, it holds rational to pay the premium price and accounting cost of using air transport to save far greater on the opportunity cost of using maritime transport.
Bibliography
Hummels, D. L., & Schaur, G. (2002). Time as a trade barrier. GTAP Working Paper Series, 103(7), 2935–2959. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.7.2935
Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook Q1 2026. (n.d.). https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/quarterly-air-transport-chartbook-q1-2026/
Aviation Value Chain Brief. (n.d.-b). https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/reports/aviation-value-chain-brief-15-february-2024/
Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters |. (2025, September 24). UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). https://unctad.org/publication/review-maritime-transport-2025
World Bank Group. (2023). Air Freight: A Market Study with Implications for Landlocked Countries. In World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/transport/publication/air-freight-study
Golub, S. S. . ., & Tomasik, B. (2008). Measures of international transport cost for OECD countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers. https://doi.org/10.1787/241707325051




